Yucca Mountain 2008 Performance Assessment: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Physical Processes

The Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the proposed high level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, uses a sampling-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Specifically, Latin hypercube sampling is used to generate a mapping between epistemically uncertain analysis inputs and analysis outcomes of interest. This results in distributions that characterize the uncertainty in analysis outcomes. Further, the resultant mapping can be explored with sensitivity analysis procedures based on (i) examination of scatterplots, (ii) partial rank correlation coefficients, (iii) R values and standardized rank regression coefficients obtained in stepwise rank regression analyses, and (iv) other analysis techniques. The TSPA considers over 300 epistemically uncertain inputs (e.g., corrosion properties, solubilities, retardations, defining parameters for Poisson processes, ....) and over 70 timedependent analysis outcomes (e.g,, physical properties in waste packages and the engineered barrier system, releases from the engineered barrier system, the unsaturated zone and the saturated zone for individual radionuclides, and annual dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) from both individual radionuclides and all radionuclides. The obtained uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results play an important role in facilitating understanding of analysis results, supporting analysis verification, establishing risk importance, and enhancing overall analysis credibility. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures are illustrated and explained with selected results for releases from the engineered barrier system, the unsaturated zone and the saturated zone and also for annual dose to the RMEI.